Nobel-Winning Economist Daron Acemoglu Shares His AI Concerns

Daron Acemoglu, awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 2024, has long offered a measured perspective on AI's impact. Months before his Nobel win, Acemoglu published a paper that suggested AI would provide only a small boost to US productivity and would not eliminate the need for human work. He stated that the technology is okay at automating certain tasks, but some jobs will be perfectly fine. While predictions of an AI jobs apocalypse continue to circulate, Acemoglu remains cautious. He recently discussed what truly worries him about the latest developments in AI.

The Limitations of AI Agents

One significant technical leap in AI since Acemoglu’s initial paper has been the emergence of agentic AI. These tools go beyond simple chatbots, operating independently to achieve given goals. While companies increasingly promote agents as a one-to-many replacement for human workers, Acemoglu considers this "just a losing proposition." He views agents as more suitable for augmenting specific parts of someone's work rather than handling an entire job. His research since 2018 on the various tasks involved in a job highlights this challenge. For instance, an x-ray technician manages about 30 different tasks, from taking patient histories to organizing mammogram images. A human worker can naturally switch between formats, databases, and working styles to accomplish these. Acemoglu questions how many individual tools or protocols an AI would require to do the same. He believes many jobs will be spared from an AI takeover if agents cannot fluidly switch between tasks and orchestrate them as humans do naturally.

The AI Industry's Economic Hiring Spree

Beyond technical developments, Acemoglu has also observed a significant trend in AI companies: a new hiring spree for in-house economics teams. OpenAI hired Ronnie Chatterji from Duke University in 2024 to be its chief economist, and last year announced Chatterji would work with Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former advisor to Barack Obama, to research AI and jobs. Anthropic has assembled a group of 10 leading economists for similar work. Just last week, Google DeepMind announced the hiring of Alex Imas, an economist from the University of Chicago, as its "director of AGI economics." Acemoglu notes that his colleagues are being recruited for these roles, stating, "It makes sense." He suggests that AI companies are well aware of growing public skepticism about AI, largely due to job concerns. They have strong incentives to shape the economic narrative surrounding their technology, as evidenced by OpenAI’s recent proposal for a new era of industrial policy.